BIG IF TRUEAll issuesCode & data on GitHub

#003 Who is winning F1, Kimi Antonelli or his Mercedes?

Elo ratings for every Formula 1 driver and every car, race by race since 1950, split into a driver part and a car part; the 2026 title simulated race by race; and the car's share of the gaps between drivers, season by season. Also in Italian: Chi sta vincendo la Formula 1, Kimi Antonelli o la Mercedes?

Read the articleLeggi in italianoDashboardOn SubstackCode and data

Figures

Click an image for full resolution.

BIG. Antonelli is champion in all but name: points after each round of 2026 and the chance of winning the title
BIG. Antonelli is champion in all but name: points after each round of 2026 and the chance of winning the title
IF. Antonelli has the best car, Verstappen is the best driver: Elo ratings split into car and driver
IF. Antonelli has the best car, Verstappen is the best driver: Elo ratings split into car and driver
TRUE. Since 2000 the car counts more than ever: the car's share of the gaps between drivers, 1950–2026
TRUE. Since 2000 the car counts more than ever: the car's share of the gaps between drivers, 1950–2026

Dashboard

Every driver and every car since 1950, rated race by race: the interactive page.

Check the article

python check_numbers.py re-derives every number the article prints (74 checks) and looks for each one in both editions; the figure scripts redraw every figure, in English and Italian. The README says how, and KEY_NUMBERS.md lists every number.

Data sources

DatasetProvider
Formula 1 results, 1950–2026 (to the Singapore Grand Prix)Jolpica F1 API (Ergast-compatible), CC BY-NC-SA 4.0

Other inputs (race reports, historical odds) and their licences are in DATA_MANIFEST.md.

How to cite

Cite the archive, not the post. One Zenodo record holds this issue's code and data together: Gallotti, R. (2026). BIG IF TRUE #003: Who is winning F1, Kimi Antonelli or his Mercedes? I analysed every Grand Prix since 1950 to find out [Code and data] (v1.0.0). Zenodo. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.23559556.

Cards on the table

This analysis was written and run by Claude Opus 5.5 under the author's direction, with Claude Sonnet agents for the race reports and the odds; not re-read line by line and not peer-reviewed. The bug log records the errors found and fixed. Found a difference? Open an issue.